Based on the data in Exhibit 1, current real short-term interest rates would most likely be highest in:
A. Country #1.
B. Country #2.
C. Country #3.
Đáp án là B is correct. Real short-term interest rates are positively related to both real GDP growth and the volatility of real GDP growth. Country 1 and Country 2 have the highest real GDP growth, as estimated by the difference between nominal GDP growth and average inflation (6.5% − 4.0% = 2.5% and 5.0% − 2.5% = 2.5%, respectively), while Country 3 has the lowest real GDP growth (3.5% − 2.0% = 1.5%). Looking at the volatility of real GDP growth, Country 2 has high real GDP growth volatility, whereas Country 1 and Country 3 have low real GDP growth volatility. Therefore, Country 2 would most likely have the highest real short-term interest rates.
Em chọn A vì em thấy The differences between nominal GDP growth and average inflation of countries 1 and 2 are both 2.5%, but country 2 has high volatility of GDP. In common sense, I suppose a part of the difference compensates for the high volatility => country 1 has higher real short-term interest rates.